Robots
Inherit Human Minds
May
1994 by Hans Moravec
Robotics Institute
Carnegie
Mellon University
Pittsburgh, PA 15213
USA
Abstract
Our
first tools, sticks and stones,
were very different from ourselves. But many tools now resemble us, in function
or form, and they are beginning to have minds. A loose parallel with our own
evolution suggests how they may
develop in future. Computerless industrial machinery exhibits the behavioral
flexibility of single-celled organisms. Today's best computer-controlled robots
are like the simpler invertebrates. A thousand-fold increase in computer power
in this decade should make possible machines with reptile-like sensory and
motor competence. Growing computer power over the next half century will allow
robots that learn like mammals, model their world like primates and eventually
reason like humans. Depending
on your point of view, humanity will then have produced a worthy successor, or
transcended inherited limitations and transformed itself into something quite
new. No longer limited by the slow pace of human learning and even slower biological
evolution, intelligent machinery will conduct its affairs on an ever faster,
ever smaller scale, until coarse physical nature has been converted to fine-grained
purposeful thought.
_________________________________
Serious
attempts to build thinking
machines began after the second world war. One line of research, called
Cybernetics, used electronic circuitry imitating nervous systems to make machines
that learned to recognize simple patterns, and turtle-like robots that found
their way to recharging plugs. A different approach, named Artificial Intelligence,
harnessed the arithmetic power of post-war computers to other kinds of
reasoning, and by the 1960s made computers prove theorems in logic and geometry,
solve calculus problems and
play good games of checkers. At the end of the 1960s, research groups at MIT
and Stanford attached television cameras and robot arms to their computers, so
"thinking" programs could begin to collect information directly from the real world.
What
a shock! While the pure reasoning programs did their jobs
about as well and about as fast as college freshmen, the best robot control programs
took hours to find and pick up a few blocks on a table, and often failed
completely, giving a performance
much worse than a six month old child. The disparity between programs that
reason and programs that perceive and act in the real world holds to this day.
In recent years Carnegie Mellon University produced two desk-sized computers
that can play chess at grandmaster level, within the top 100 players in the world,
when given their moves on a keyboard, but no robot can see and grasp pieces
on a physical chessboard as well as an average person.
Why is it was
easier to imitate human reasoning
than perception and action? The answer is obvious in hindsight. For hundreds
of millions of years, our ancestors survived by seeing and moving better than
their competition, and became fantastically efficient. We rarely appreciate
our monumental skill because it is commonplace, shared by every human being and
most animals. On the other hand, rational thinking, as in chess, is a newly
acquired skill, perhaps less than one hundred thousand years old. The parts of
our brain devoted to it are not
well organized, and we do it very poorly. We didn't realize how poorly until
recently, because we had no competition to show us up.
By comparing
the edge and motion detecting circuitry in the four layers of nerve cells in
the retina, the best understood major circuit in the human nervous system, with
similar processes developed for computer vision systems that let robots see,
I've estimated that it would take a billion computations per second, like an average
supercomputer, to do the
job of the human retina. By extrapolation, it will take the power of ten thousand
supercomputers or a million personal computers to emulate a whole brain.
Machines
are far behind, but catching up fast. For most of the century,
machine calculation has been improving a thousandfold every twenty years, and
there are basic developments in research labs to sustain this for at least
several decades more. In less than fifty years computer hardware should become
powerful enough that a personal
computer could match or exceed, even the well-developed parts of human intelligence.
But what about the software that would be required to give these powerful
machines the ability to perceive, intuit and think as well as humans? The Cybernetic
approach that attempts to directly imitate nervous systems is very slow,
partly because examining working brains is a very tedious process. New instruments
may change that in future. The Artificial Intelligence approach has successfully
imitated some aspects
of rational thought, but that seems to be only about one millionth of the problem.
I feel that the fastest progress on the hardest problems will come from
a third approach, the newer field of robotics, the construction of systems that
must see and move in the physical world. Robotics research is imitating the evolution
of animal minds, adding capabilities to machines a few at
a time, so that the resulting sequence of machine behaviors resembles the capabilities
of animals with increasingly
complex nervous systems. This effort to build intelligence from the bottom
up is helped by biological peeks at the "back of the book"--at the neuronal,
structural, and behavioral features of animals and humans.
The best
robots today cost as much as houses, but have insectlike intelligence, and find
only a very few profitable niches in society. But those few applications encourage
research that is slowly providing a base for a huge future growth. Robot
evolution in the direction
of full intelligence will greatly accelerate, I believe, next decade when the mass-produced
general purpose, universal robot becomes possible.
These machines will host application programs to perform tasks in the physical
world, like personal computers now work in the world of data. From there, they
will gradually become more competent and independent, until, in about fifty years,
they will surpass humanity in mind and body. I imagine universal robots evolving
through four generations,
each lasting about a decade.
First-Generation Universal
Robots
Timeframe: 2000-2010
Processing
power: 1,000 MIPS (1993 supercomputer -- Reptile-scale)
Distinguishing
feature: General-purpose perception, manipulation and mobility
A
robot's activities are assembled from its fundamental perception and
action repertoire. First-generation robots will exist in a world built for
humans, and that repertoire most
usefully would resemble a human's. The general size, shape and strength of the
machine should be human-like, to allow passage through and reach into the same
spaces. Its mobility should be efficient on flat ground, where most tasks will
happen, but also reliable and safe over stairs and rough ground, lest the robot
be trapped on single-floor "islands." It should be able to manipulate most
everyday objects, and to find them in the nearby world. The components of this
machine exist in laboratories
worldwide, and suggest guidelines for a practical design this decade.
1,000
MIPS (Millions of Instructions Per Second) is just enough computing power
for a moving robot to build a coarse map of its surroundings. When not traveling,
there is power enough to make detailed maps of workspaces, to find particular
objects and to finely control an arm. Besides its unique robotic functions,
the robot could share with personal computers the ability to communicate
over wireless networks, to generate
and interpret speech and writing. Programs for specific applications--many
obtained via networks--will orchestrate these basics to accomplish useful tasks.
Universal
robots will be first used in factories, warehouses and offices,
where they will be more versatile than the older generation of robots they
replace. Because of their breadth of applicability, their numbers should grow
rapidly, and their price decline. Eventually they will become cheap enough
for some households, shipped perhaps
with a housecleaning program, as word-processing programs were packaged
with early personal computers.
As with computers, many applications
of robots will surprise their manufacturers. Robot programs may be developed to
do light mechanical work (assembling other robots, for example), deliver warehoused
inventories, prepare specific gourmet meals, tune up certain types of car,
hook patterned rugs, weed lawns, run races, play games, arrange earth, stone
and brick or sculpt. Some tasks
will need specialized hardware attachments like tools and chemical sensors.
Each application will require its own original software, very complex by today's
computer program standards. The programs will contain modules for recognizing,
grasping, manipulating, transporting and assembling particular items--modules
developed via learning programs on supercomputers (with about 100,000 MIPS).
In time, a growing library of subtask modules may ease the construction of new
programs.
A first-generation
robot will have the brain power of a reptile, but most application programs
will be so focused on their primary functions that they will leave the robot
with the personality of a washing machine.
Second-Generation
Universal Robots
Timeframe: 2010-2020
Processing
power: 30,000 MIPS (Mammal-scale)
Distinguishing feature:
Conditioned learning
First-generation robots will be rigid
slaves to inflexible programs,
relentless in pursuing their tasks--or repeating their errors. Except for specialized
episodes like recording a new cleaning route or the location of work
objects, they will be incapable of learning new skills or adapting to unanticipated
circumstances--even modest alterations of behavior will require new programs
from software suppliers.
Second-generation robots, with thirty times
the processing power, will be more adaptable because they do some learning
onboard. Their programs will be
written so each step, large and small, can be attempted in several alternative
ways. A set of separate programs, called conditioning modules, will adjust the
relative desirability of actions taken recently. One module may generate negative
conditioning if the robot collided with something. Another may positively
condition tasks accomplished especially rapidly. The conditioning modules define
the robots likes and dislikes, and gradually shape its skills and personality.
If
a first-generation
robot working in your kitchen runs into trouble--say, failing to complete
a key step because a portion of the workspace is awkwardly small--you have to
option of abandoning the task, changing its environment, or obtaining different
software. A second-generation robot will make a number of false starts, but most
probably will find its own solution, as well as adapting and improving in thousands
of more subtle ways. With conditioning modules that respond to spoken
signals, like "bad!" and "good!",
and very general control programs that permit almost any action at any step,
it may be possible to slowly train second-generation robots for new tasks, as
one trains circus animals--a slow but interesting way of creating new application
programs, or modifying old one.
Third-Generation Universal
Robots
Timeframe: 2020-2030
Processing
power: 1,000,000 MIPS (Primate-scale)
Distinguishing feature:
World modeling
Adaptive
second-generation robots will find jobs everywhere, and may become the
largest industry on earth. But teaching them new skills, whether by writing
programs or through training, will be very tedious. A third generation of universal
robots will learn much faster by doing trial and error in fast simulation
rather than slow and dangerous physicality.
An adequate simulation
requires almost everything the robot senses to be recognized for the kind of object
it is, so that the proper
models of interaction can called up. Recognizing arbitrary objects by sight is
as difficult as knowing how they will interact: it will require modules programmed
or trained for each kind of thing.
A continuously updated simulation
of self and surroundings gives a robot interesting abilities. By running
the simulation slightly faster than real time, the robot can preview what it
is about to do, in time to alter its intent if the simulation predicts it will
turn out badly--a kind of consciousness.
On a larger scale, before undertaking a new task, the robot can simulate
it many times, with conditioning system engaged, learning from the simulated
experiences as it would from physical ones. In its spare time, the robot can
replay previous experiences, and try variations on them, perhaps learning ways
to improve future performance. A sufficiently advanced third-generation robot,
whose simulation extends to other agents--robots and people--would be able to observe
a task being done by someone
else, and formulate a program for doing the task itself: it could imitate.
Fourth-Generation Universal Robots
Timeframe:
2030-2040
Processing power: 30,000,000 MIPS (Human-scale)
Distinguishing
feature: Reasoning
In
the decades while the "bottom-up" evolution of robots is slowly transferring the
perceptual and motor faculties of human beings into machinery, the conventional
Artificial Intelligence industry
will be perfecting the mechanization of reasoning. Since today's programs
already match human beings in some areas, those of 40 years from now, running
on computers a million times as fast as today's, should be quite superhuman.
Today's reasoning programs work from small amounts of unambiguous information prepared
by human beings--data from robot sensors such as cameras is much too voluminous
and too noisy for them to use. But a good robot simulator will contain
neatly organized and labeled descriptions
of the robot and its world, ready to answer questions from a reasoning
program asking, for instance, if a knife is on a countertop, or if the robot
is holding a cup, or even if a human is angry
Fourth-generation universal
robots will have computers powerful enough to simultaneously simulate the
world, reason about the simulation, and simulate the results of reasoning.
When someone tells the robot "the water is running in the bathtub"
the robot can update its simulation
of the world to include flow into the unseen tub, where a simulated extrapolation
would indicate an undesirable overflow later, and so motivate the robot
to go to turn off the tap. A fourth-generation robot will be able to accept
statements of purpose from humans, and "compile" them into detailed programs that
accomplish the task. With a database about the world at large the statements
could become quite general--things like "earn a living", "make more robots" or
"make a smarter robot." In fact,
fourth generation robots will have the general competence of human beings,
and resemble us in some ways, but in others be like nothing the world has seen
before. As they design their own successors, the world will become ever stranger.
The
Short Run (early 2000s)
Hard-working,
intelligent robots will generate wealth, but displace human workers. Social
changes resulting in reduced work hours and creation of new needs in secondary
service industries may take
up the slack for a while. In time almost all humans may work to amuse other
humans, while robots run competitive primary industries, like food production and
manufacturing. There is a problem with this picture. The service economy functions
today because many humans willing to buy services work in the primary
industries, and so return money to the service providers, who in turn use it to
buy life's essentials. As the pool of humans in the primary industries evaporates,
the return channel chokes
off--efficient, no-nonsense robots will not engage in frivolous consumption. Money
will accumulate in the industries, enriching owners and the dwindling number
of human workers, and become scarce among the service providers. Prices for
primary products will plummet, reflecting both the reduced costs of production,
and the reduced means of the consumers. In the ridiculous extreme, no money
would flow back, and the robots would fill warehouses with essential goods which
the human consumers could not
buy.
Actually, business owners will continue to profit, and so be able
to patronize the service providers, but it is unlikely that a future majority
of service-providing "commoners" with more free time, communications and democracy
than today, would tolerate being lorded over by a minority of non-working
hereditary capitalists: they would vote to change the system. An easy change
in the United States could be through the social security system. Social security
was originally presented as
a government-run pension fund that accumulated wages for retirement, but in practice
it transfers income from workers to retirees. The system will probably
be subsidized from general taxes in coming decades, when too few workers are available
to support the retiring post World War II baby boom. Incremental expansion
of such a subsidy would let money from robot industries, collected as corporate
taxes, be returned to the general population as pension payments. By gradually
lowering the retirement
age towards birth, most of the population would eventually be supported. The
money could be distributed under other names, but calling it a pension is meaningful
symbolism: we are describing the long, comfortable retirement of the original-model
human race.
The Medium Run (around 2050)
What
happens to people when work becomes passe? Contrary to fears
of some enmeshed in civilization's work ethic, our tribal past prepared us well
for lives as idle rich. In
a good climate and location the hunter-gatherer's lot can be very pleasant: an
afternoon's outing picking berries or catching fish--what we civilized types would
recognize as a recreational weekend--provides life's needs for several days.
The rest of the time can be spent with children, socializing or resting. Our
ancestors had also to survive hard times, and evolution bequeathed us the capacity
for desperate measures, including hard work. Civilization turned that extremity
into everyday normality,
and now stress is the leading cause of disease.
Many trends in industrialized
countries indicate a future of humans supported by a rich robot economy,
as our ancestors were supplied by their ecology (call it paradise with plumbing),
as technology and global competition are gradually depopulating businesses.
To
keep the paradise in operation, it will be essential to keep
fully automated companies cooperating. They will be shaped by future editions
of existing laws, by taxes, and
by consumer demand. Existing laws give incorporated entities some of the rights
of a person, most importantly the right to own property and make contracts.
They do not grant the right to life--corporations may legally be killed by competition
or through legal or financial actions. Corporations are bound by laws
similar to those that regulate humans, and can be punished through fines, operating
restrictions or dissolution--even without humans to fine, imprison or execute.
Corporations stay alive
by building and maintaining physical assets that generate income to pay their expenses.
In the mid 21st century, the biggest expense will be taxation, and income
will come mostly from choosy human customers.
Tax laws will be
shaped by human voters: there is no precedent or motivation for extending suffrage
to robots, and the vote will be one of the very few advantages humans retain.
Some debate is inevitable, but there should be few qualms about keeping even
very superior thinking machines
in disenfranchised bondage. It takes force, indoctrination and constant vigilance
to counter inherited needs and motivations and enslave a human, but a
robot can be constructed to enjoy the role. Natural evolution itself has provided
examples, in worker castes of social insects, and self-sacrificing mothers
of all species.
The primary job of voters in the next century will be
protecting their retirement benefits, that is ensuring that robot industries
continue to support them. The
robots will present a moving target, but the instruments of control will also grow
in power. Not only will companies that get out of line be liable for punishment--if
necessary, by force purchased from other companies--but they can be controlled
a-priori by intrusions directly into their software.
Corporate
intelligences may be governed by structures like those controlling fourth-generation
robots. Immensely powerful reasoning and simulation modules will plan
complex actions, but the desirability
of possible outcomes will be defined by much simpler positive and negative
conditioning modules (or by sets of axioms in super-rational systems), whose
composition shapes the character of the entire entity. Humans can buy enormous
safety by mandating an elaborate analog of Isaac Asimov's three "Laws of Robotics"
in this corporate character--perhaps the entire body of corporate law,
with human rights and anti-trust provisions, and appropriate relative weightings
to resolve conflicts. Robot
corporations so constituted will have no desire to cheat, though they may sometimes
find creative interpretations of the laws--which will consequently require
a period of tuning to insure their intended spirit.
Internalized laws,
properly adjusted, should produce extraordinarily trustworthy entities, happy
to die to ensure their legality. Even so, accident, unintended interactions
or human malice could occasionally produce a rogue robot or corporation, with superhuman
intelligence and unpleasant
goals. "Police" clauses in the core corporate laws, inducing legal corporations
to collectively suppress outlaws, by withholding services, or even with
force, would mitigate the danger. Overall safety would be enhanced by anti-trust
provisions that limit collusion and cause overgrown corporations to divide
into competing entities, ensuring diversity and multiplicity. In the next section
we discuss activities in the solar system that could threaten Earth: in response,
police clauses might be
expanded in scope to support a planetary defense.
Like basic food in
today's developed countries, common manufactured goods in the next century will
be too cheap and plentiful to be very profitable. To pay their taxes, most
companies will be forced to continually invent unique products and services in
a race against competitors to attract increasingly sophisticated (or jaded) human
consumers. Automated research, as superhumanly systematic, industrious and
speedy as robot manufacturing,
will generate a succession of new products, as well as improved robot researchers
and models of the physical and social world. The likely results will exceed
the dreams of science fiction: robotic playmates, virtual realities and personalized
works of art that stir the emotions like nothing before, medical solutions
for every physical, mental or cosmetic whim, answers to satisfy any curiosity,
luxury visits anywhere in the solar system, and things yet to be imagined.
The existence of an astronomically
increasing variety of consumer choices will accelerate the divergence of human
tribes: some may choose a comfortable imitation of an earlier period, but others
will push the human envelope in wisdom, pleasure, beauty, ugliness, spirituality,
banality and every other direction. The choices made by diverse communities
will shape robot evolution--only companies able to devise services of interest
to the customers will generate enough income to survive.
Prosperity
beyond imagination should
eliminate most instinctive triggers of aggression, but will not prevent an occasional
individual or group from deciding to make mischief for others. Serious
trouble can be avoided by restricting robotic technology, since mere human actions
will not be very dangerous in a world where cheap superhuman robots function
as sleepless sentries, prescient detectives, fearless bodyguards, and, in extremis,
physicians able to reconstitute live humans from fragments or digital recordings.
To be effective, inbuilt
laws that prevent corporations from directly contributing to mayhem must
also include clauses limiting the powers they can sell to people.
Both
biological and hard robotic technologies can be used to enhance human beings.
Such present-day examples as hormonal and genetic tuning of body growth and
function, pacemakers, artificial hearts, powered artificial limbs, hearing aids
and night vision devices are faint hints of future possibilities. It will probably
be possible to preserve
a person while replacing every part of body and brain with a superior artificial
substitute. A biological human, not bound by corporate law, could grow into something
seriously dangerous if transformed into an extensible robot. There are
many subtle routes to such a transformation, and some will find the option of
personally transcending their biological humanity attractive enough to pursue
it clandestinely if it were outlawed--with potential for very ugly confrontations
when they are eventually discovered.
On the other hand, without restrictions, transformed humans of arbitrary
power and little accountability might routinely trample the planet, deliberately,
or accidentally. A good compromise, it seems to me, is to allow earth-bound
humanity to perfect its biology within broad human bounds, as in health, appearance,
strength, intelligence and longevity, but to allow major growth or robotic
conversion only in a radical escape clause. To exceed the limits, one must
renounce legal standing as a
human being, including the right to corporate police protection, to subsidized
income, to vote on tribal and pan-tribal matters--and to reside on Earth. In return
one gets a severance payment sufficient to establish a comfortable space
homestead, and absolute freedom to make one's own way in the cosmos, without further
help or hindrance from home. Perhaps the electorate will permit a small
hedging of bets, allowing one copy of a person, psychologically modified to prefer
staying, to remain while subsidizing
the emigration of an emboldened edition.
The Long
Run (2100 and beyond)
The garden of earthly delights will
be reserved for the meek, and those who would eat of the tree of knowledge must
be banished. What a banishment it will be! Beyond Earth, in all directions,
lies limitless outer space, a worthy arena for vigorous growth in every physical
and mental dimension. Freely compounding superintelligence, too dangerous for
Earth, can grow for a very long
time before making the barest mark on the galaxy.
Corporations will
be squeezed into the solar system between two opposing imperatives: high taxes
on large, dangerous earthbound facilities, and the need to conduct massive
research projects to beat the competition in Earth's demanding markets. In remote
space, large structures and energies can be harnessed cheaply to generate physical
extremes, compute massively, isolate dangerous organisms, and generally
operate boldly. The costs will
be modest: even now, it is relatively cheap to send machines into the solar system,
since the sunlight-filled vacuum is as benign for mechanics, electronics
and optics as it is lethal for the wet chemistry of organic life. Today's simple-minded
space probes perform only prearranged tasks, but intelligent robots
can be configured to opportunistically exploit resources they encounter. A small
"seed" colony launched to an asteroid or small moon could process local material
and energy to grow into a
facility of almost arbitrary size. Earth's moon may be off limits, especially
to enterprises that change its appearance, but the solar system has thousands
of unremarkable asteroids (some in earth-threatening orbits that an onboard intelligence
would tame).
Once grown to operational size, an extraterrestrial
"research division" may merely communicate with its earth-bound parent,
sending new product designs and receiving market feedback. Space manufacture may
also pay, and later we'll see
some surprisingly economical and ecologically benign ways to move massive amounts
of material to and from Earth.
Residents of the solar system's
wild frontier will be shaped by conditions very different than tame Earth's. Space
divisions of successful companies will retain terrestrial concerns, but ex-humans
and company divisions orphaned by the failure of their parent firms will
face enforced freedom. Like wilderness explorers of the past, far from civilization,
they must rely on their
own resourcefulness. Ex-companies, away from humans and taxes, will rarely encounter
situations that invoke their inbuilt laws, which will in any case diminish
in significance as the divisions alter themselves without direction from human
voters. Ex-humans, from the start, will be free of any mandatory law. Both
kinds of "Ex" will grow and restructure at will, continually redesigning themselves
for the future as they conceive it. Differences in origins will be obscured
as Exes exchange design tips,
but aggregate diversity will increase as myriad individual intelligences pursue
their own separate dreams, each generation more complex, in more habitats,
choosing among more alternatives. We marvel at the diversity of life in Earth's
biosphere, with animals and plants and chemically agile bacteria and fungi
in every nook and cranny, but the diversity and range of the post-biological world
will be astronomically greater.
An ecology will arise, as individual
Exes specialize. Some may
choose to defend territory in the solar system, near planets or in free solar
orbit, close to the sun, or out in cometary space beyond the planets. Others may
decide to push on to the nearby stars. Some may simply die, through miscalculation
or deliberately. There will be conflicts of interest, and occasional clashes
that drive away or destroy some of the participants, but superintelligent
foresight and flexibly should allow most conflicts to be settled by mutually
beneficial surrenders, compromises,
joint ventures or mergers. Small entities may be absorbed by larger ones,
and large entities will sometimes divide, or establish seed colonies. Parasites,
in hardware and software, many starting out as component parts of larger beings,
will evolve to exploit the rich ecology. The scene may resemble the free-for-all
revealed in microscopic peeks at pond water, but instead of bacteria,
protozoa and rotifers, the players will be entities of potentially planetary size,
whose constantly-growing intelligence
greatly exceeds a human's, and whose form changes frequently through
conscious design. The expanding community will be linked by a web of communication
links, on which the intelligences barter inventions, discoveries, coordinated
skills, and entire personalities, sharing the benefits of each other's enterprise.
Less
restricted and more competitive, the space frontier will
develop more rapidly than Earth's tame economy. An entity that fails to keep
up with its neighbors is likely
to be eaten, its space, materials, energy and useful thoughts reorganized
to serve another's goals. Such a fate may be routine for humans who
dally too long on slow Earth before going Ex. Perhaps a few will escape to expanses
beyond the solar system's dangers, like newly hatched marine turtles scrambling
across a beach to the sea, under greedy swooping birds. Others may pre-negotiate
favorable absorption terms with established Exes, like graduating seniors
meeting company recruiters--or
Faust soliciting bids for his soul.
Exes will propagate less by
reproduction than reconstruction, meeting the future with continuous self improvements.
Unlike the blind incremental processes of conventional life, intelligence-directed
evolution can make radical leaps and change substance while retaining
form. A few decades ago radios changed from vacuum tubes to utterly different
transistors, but kept the clever "superheterodyne" design. A few centuries
ago, bridges changed from stone
to iron, but retained the arch. A normally evolving animal species could not
suddenly adopt iron skeletons or silicon neurons, but one engineering its own
future might. Even so, Darwinian selection will remain the final arbiter. Forethought
reveals the future only dimly, especially concerning entities and interactions
more complex than the thinker. Prototypes uncover only short-term problems.
There will be minor, major and spectacular miscalculations, along with
occasional happy accidents.
Entities that make big mistakes, or too many small ones, will perish. The lucky
few who happen to make mostly correct choices will found succeeding generations.
Only tentatively grasping the future, entities will perforce rely
also on their past. Time-tested fundamentals of behavior, with consequences
too sublime to predict, will remain at the core of beings whose form and substance
changes frequently. Ex-companies are likely to retain much of corporate law
and Ex-humans are likely to
remain humanly decent--why choose to become a psychopath? In fact, a reputation
for decency has predictable advantages for a long-lived social entity. Human
beings are able to maintain personal relationships with about two hundred individuals,
but superintelligent Exes will have memories more like today's credit bureaus,
with enduring room for billions. Trustworthy entities will find it far
easier than cheaters to participate in mutually beneficial exchanges and joint
ventures. In the land of immortals,
reputation is a ponderous force. Other character traits, like aggressiveness,
fecundity, generosity, contentment or wanderlust likely also have long-term
consequences imperfectly revealed in simulations or prototypes.
To
maintain integrity, Exes may divide their mental makeup into two parts, a frequently
changed detailed design, and a rarely-altered constitution
of general design principles--analogous to the laws and the constitution
of a nation, the general
knowledge and fundamental beliefs of a person, or soul and spirit in some religious
systems. Deliberately unquestioned constitutions will shape entities in
the long run, even as their designs undergo frequent radical makeovers. Once
in a while, through accident or after much study, a constitution may be slightly
altered, or one entity may adopt a portion of another's. Some variations will
prove more effective, and entities with them will become slowly more numerous
and widespread. Some will be
so ineffective that they become extinct. Gradually, by Darwinian processes, constitutions
will evolve. They will be both the DNA and the moral code of the
postbiological world, shaping the superintelligences that manage day to day transformations
of world, body and mind.