Figure from ROBOT, Moravec, Oxford, 1998, Chapter 3: Power and Presence, page 71
Computer chess rating rising steadily from 800 (infant) in 1956 to
over 2700 (world champion) in 1997

Agony to ecstasy

In forty years, computer chess progressed from the lowest depth to the highest peak of human chess performance. It took a handful of good ideas, culled by trial and error from a larger number of possibilities, an accumulation of previously evaluated game openings and endings, good adjustment of position scores, and especially a ten-millionfold increase in the number of alternative move sequences the machines can explore. Note that chess machines reached world champion performance as their (specialized) processing power reached about 3% of human, on our brain-to-computer scale. Since it is plausible that Garry Kasparov (but hardly anyone else) can apply his brainpower to the problems of chess with an efficiency of 3%, the result supports our retina-based extrapolation. In coming decades, as general-purpose computer power grows beyond Deep Blue's specialized strength, machines will begin to match humans in more common skills.

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