Preview of a new book by Hans Moravec
Current readers may wish to visit the book supplement instead.


Robot jacket
ROBOT
mere machine to transcendent mind


Available now

The book considers the history and future of intelligent machines. It argues that robots will match human intelligence in less than fifty years, and suggests arrangements for a comfortable human existence in a fully automated economy. Concluding chapters speculate on the distant future of evolving intelligence.

The text updates and expands last decade's Mind Children. Since that book was published in 1988, machines have defeated the world chess champion, driven vans across thousands of miles of public roads, found theorem proofs sought by mathematicians for a half century, composed music that sophisticated listeners found pleasant and interesting, and earned livings making scientific, medical and financial decisions. These accomplishments had eluded researchers in the previous three decades. A major factor in the recent successes is the availability of about 100 times more computer power than before. The available power is now doubling every year, and a rapid evolution of machine intelligence is underway. The new book documents, extrapolates and evaluates the prospects.


Hopkins Beast Stanford Cart CMU Navlabs Robot 3D Perception Power and Storage Consciousness CartoonConsciousness Cartoon RoboVac Honda Walking Robot Universal Robot Fractal Bush Robot

Synopsis

Accelerating technological change has stretched human adaptability to the limit. Since the dawn of humanity, our ancestors lived in tribal villages. Our instincts are tuned for such conditions. The many cultural innovations of the agricultural civilizations and their successors allowed them to dominate and absorb their tribal neighbors, at a cost. It became harder and harder, and took longer and longer, to condition new citizens for the increasingly strange new ways of life. Today schooling can consume half a working lifetime, and some never manage to adjust. Chapter 1 suggests that further progress, instead of stretching us even more, can decouple us from the change. As ever more work is automated by increasingly intelligent machinery, humans could return to an approximation of their ancient patterns.

Chapter 2 reviews the state of the robot art, like a baby poised for sudden growth. The following chapters mix predictions with suggested actions. Barring cataclysms, I consider the development of intelligent machines a near-term inevitability, examined in Chapters 3 and 4. Like airplanes, but unlike spaceships or radio, they will be a direct imitation of something already existing biologically. Every technical step towards intelligent robots has a rough evolutionary counterpart, and each is likely to benefit its creators, manufacturers and users. Each advance will provide intellectual rewards, competitive advantages and increased wealth and options of all kinds. Each can make the world a nicer place to live. At the same time, by performing better than humanly possible, the robots will displace humans from essential roles. Rather quickly, they could displace us from existence. I'm not as alarmed as many by the latter possibility, since I consider these future machines our progeny, "mind children" built in our image and likeness, ourselves in more potent form. Like biological children of previous generations, they will embody humanity's best hope for a long-term future. It behooves us to give them every advantage, and to bow out when we can no longer contribute.

But, as also with biological children, we can probably arrange for a comfortable retirement before we fade away. Some biological children can be convinced to care for elderly parents. Similarly, "tame" superintelligences could be created and induced to protect and support for us, for a while. Such relationships require advance planning and diligent maintenance. Chapter 5 offers suggestions.

It is the "wild" intelligences, however, those beyond our constraints, to whom the future belongs. The available tools for peeking into that strange future--extrapolation, analogy, abstraction and reason--are, of course, totally inadequate. Yet, even they suggest surreal happenings. In Chapter 6 robots sweep into space in a colonizing wave, but then disappear in a wake of increasingly pure thinking stuff. A "Mind Fire" burns across the universe in Chapter 7. Physical law loses its primacy to purposes, goals, interpretations and God knows what else.

Follow the links for a preview of images and text



Reviews

Lingua Franca, Fall 1998         Publishers Wk, Oct 5, 1998         Kirkus, Oct 15, 1998         Booklist, Nov 1, 1998         Washington Post, Nov 8, 1998         Wired, Dec 1998         NY Times, Jan 3, 1999   To NYT editor         Houston Chronicle, Jan 17, 1999         Futurist, February 1999         NYpress, Feb 17, 1999         Nature, Feb 25, 1999         Globe and Mail, Feb 27, 1999         Foresight, Mar 30, 1999         Analog, April 1999         Event Horizon, Apr 24, 1999         Red Herring, June 1999         F&SF, October 1999         SIAM News, May 16, 2000